UPDATE #2 PERU 馃嚨馃嚜
The Peruvian government was the first and most drastic country in Latin America to fight the pandemic: a strict lockdown and the biggest economic stimulus plan of the region.
But.. Peru is now the 2nd most affected country after Brazil.
As you can see from the photo, the hard part has been the informal economy where most people work for their daily bread. Initially, the rich areas were the most affected (travelled to Europe)... now it is those poorer parts of Lima and remote regions. Prior to lockdown, government recommendations (distancing, canceling events) were even ignored by the richer educated. Thus the government enforced an emergency state lockdown: the rich areas now followed restrictions but many poor informal and uneducated areas have partly ignored with more than 50,000 people arrested. The virus was originally mainly focalized in Lima, but when the lockdown was communicated, many quickly left Lima to visit their families in all regions. What did they bring with them? Virus.
Currently 134 of the 504 available ICU units are occupied with covid-19 cases. With current infection rates, the healthcare system will be at capacity within the next 2 weeks. Peru's government put the health of their citizens prior to the economy, but these tight restrictions have not given the same results as in Europe/Asia. The health care system will soon collapse.
Sadly, now I only see these 4 options:
1) Continue distancing and ramp up testing (competing for tests with rich countries, hoping results as in Europe)
2) End the lockdown, open the economy, accept high infection rates and ~200,000 fatalities (herd immunity)
3) Keep incrementing ICU capacity (competing and waiting with the whole world for expensive ventilators)
4) Keep doing many intermittent quarantines (reiterate ease up and tighten of restrictions)
CASES:
06 MAR: First case
27 MAR: 635 cases
13 APR: 10,000 cases of ~90,000 tests
Our strict lockdown has now been twice extended and should end by the 26th of April. I will give another update then.
This was originally posted at:https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10157023000931105&set=a.10150353306211105
As you can see from the photo, the hard part has been the informal economy where most people work for their daily bread. Initially, the rich areas were the most affected (travelled to Europe)... now it is those poorer parts of Lima and remote regions. Prior to lockdown, government recommendations (distancing, canceling events) were even ignored by the richer educated. Thus the government enforced an emergency state lockdown: the rich areas now followed restrictions but many poor informal and uneducated areas have partly ignored with more than 50,000 people arrested. The virus was originally mainly focalized in Lima, but when the lockdown was communicated, many quickly left Lima to visit their families in all regions. What did they bring with them? Virus.
Currently 134 of the 504 available ICU units are occupied with covid-19 cases. With current infection rates, the healthcare system will be at capacity within the next 2 weeks. Peru's government put the health of their citizens prior to the economy, but these tight restrictions have not given the same results as in Europe/Asia. The health care system will soon collapse.
Sadly, now I only see these 4 options:
1) Continue distancing and ramp up testing (competing for tests with rich countries, hoping results as in Europe)
2) End the lockdown, open the economy, accept high infection rates and ~200,000 fatalities (herd immunity)
3) Keep incrementing ICU capacity (competing and waiting with the whole world for expensive ventilators)
4) Keep doing many intermittent quarantines (reiterate ease up and tighten of restrictions)
CASES:
06 MAR: First case
27 MAR: 635 cases
13 APR: 10,000 cases of ~90,000 tests
Our strict lockdown has now been twice extended and should end by the 26th of April. I will give another update then.
This was originally posted at:https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10157023000931105&set=a.10150353306211105
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